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The situation in the Middle East resembles a “powder keg”: relations between Iran and the United States have reached an armed conflict. First, the Americans destroyed the train of senior and revered in Iran, General Kassem Suleimani, who led the secret operations of special forces abroad. And then, after large-scale protests, the Iranian authorities launched a “retaliation strike” at two American air bases located in Iraq. There were no victims of a missile strike, but the US response could make the situation in the region unpredictable. However, President Trump, in an appeal to the nation, on the contrary, refused further military escalation, promising the Iranians only new sanctions. The situation in the Middle East is closely monitored in Moscow, which has long and firmly maintained relations with Iran. What are the interests of Russia in Iran? What can change the war with Iran? We asked these questions to the orientalist.
Alexander Shumilin
Head of the Center "Europe - Middle East" Institute of Europe RAS
How are the Russian authorities going to react to the escalation of the conflict?
- They probably plan to monitor what is happening with the hope that they will remain on the sidelines and not be involved in the conflict. They also hope that the conflict does not grow. Otherwise, it is fraught with inflicting a substantial defeat on Iran in the military-material sense, as well as in the strategic sense. In addition, taking into account the current situation in the region.
Please explain the last statement.
- Recently, Iran has successfully expanded the zone of its influence, presence and control in the region in neighboring countries - Iraq, Syria, Lebanon. In remote countries, for example, in Yemen, there were also attempts to build up influence, but they failed. The strategy was implemented quite successfully due to the lack of opposition from Iran’s opponents, which pushed Tehran to raise rates in the regional confrontation. The successful implementation of this strategy morally and politically inspired both supporters of Iran and those who were neutral towards it. Local players who are neutral towards Tehran were encouraged by the success of the ayatollahs to take a more cautious stance. The escalation of conflict can put an end to this strategy.
What does this mean for Russia?
- For Russia, this issue is extremely urgent, because in the region, Iran can turn from a military Atlant into a dwarf.
The Russian Foreign Ministry condemned the murder of Kassem Suleimani. Should we expect that Russia will become a third party in the conflict between the USA and Iran?
- No, Russia will not be a third party in nine out of ten possible scenarios. However, any one scenario called the “black swan” will remain. For example, Iran can substitute Russia by trying to draw it into a confrontation with the United States, that is, in fact, hide behind it. This situation was already in the Strait of Hormuz, when the Iranians abducted tankers sailing under the West European flags (the conflict occurred in the summer of 2019. - D.K.). When the United States, Britain, and several other European states threatened Iran, the country decided to hide behind Russia, inviting it to take part in joint maneuvers in the Persian Gulf (subsequently, China became another party). The maneuvers, in fact, demonstrated naval power that could withstand the western flotilla. They went for it in Moscow.
Translated from - Novayagazeta.ru
Alexander Shumilin
Head of the Center "Europe - Middle East" Institute of Europe RAS
How are the Russian authorities going to react to the escalation of the conflict?
- They probably plan to monitor what is happening with the hope that they will remain on the sidelines and not be involved in the conflict. They also hope that the conflict does not grow. Otherwise, it is fraught with inflicting a substantial defeat on Iran in the military-material sense, as well as in the strategic sense. In addition, taking into account the current situation in the region.
Please explain the last statement.
- Recently, Iran has successfully expanded the zone of its influence, presence and control in the region in neighboring countries - Iraq, Syria, Lebanon. In remote countries, for example, in Yemen, there were also attempts to build up influence, but they failed. The strategy was implemented quite successfully due to the lack of opposition from Iran’s opponents, which pushed Tehran to raise rates in the regional confrontation. The successful implementation of this strategy morally and politically inspired both supporters of Iran and those who were neutral towards it. Local players who are neutral towards Tehran were encouraged by the success of the ayatollahs to take a more cautious stance. The escalation of conflict can put an end to this strategy.
Iranian leadership at the funeral of General Kassem Suleimani. Third on the left is Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, on his right is Ayatollah Ali Khomenei, on his right is the new leader of the Quds special forces. Photo: Reuters
What does this mean for Russia?
- For Russia, this issue is extremely urgent, because in the region, Iran can turn from a military Atlant into a dwarf.
The Russian Foreign Ministry condemned the murder of Kassem Suleimani. Should we expect that Russia will become a third party in the conflict between the USA and Iran?
- No, Russia will not be a third party in nine out of ten possible scenarios. However, any one scenario called the “black swan” will remain. For example, Iran can substitute Russia by trying to draw it into a confrontation with the United States, that is, in fact, hide behind it. This situation was already in the Strait of Hormuz, when the Iranians abducted tankers sailing under the West European flags (the conflict occurred in the summer of 2019. - D.K.). When the United States, Britain, and several other European states threatened Iran, the country decided to hide behind Russia, inviting it to take part in joint maneuvers in the Persian Gulf (subsequently, China became another party). The maneuvers, in fact, demonstrated naval power that could withstand the western flotilla. They went for it in Moscow.
Translated from - Novayagazeta.ru
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